I'd like to say that increasing aggression towards Iran would be stupid and destructive and would never happen. But after Saudi-funded and -trained terrorists who were based out of the nebulous area where Pakistan and Afghanistan meet attacked New York and we responded by attacking the Taliban and Iraq, well, let's just say that logic and reasoning will not get in the way if the War Machine decides we need to bomb Iran. The media will fall in line, just like they did the last every time ever.
It will only take one triggering event to start a war with Iran, if the wrong person is in the White House. The event--clearly--doesn't even need anything to do with Iran.
Iran knows this. They aren't stupid about foreign policy. So to make sure the world knows what would happen if Iran was attacked, they are doing training maneuvers in the straits of Hormuz. Hormuz is where nearly 20% flows through. If the straits were blockaded or blocked up by say, a whole bunch of sunken ships and sea mines, then the price of oil would immediately skyrocket and the Middle East--which heavily depends on oil exports--would erupt into absolute chaos. This is Iran's real nuclear option.
America and the UN have been considering an oil embargo on Iran. This would cripple Iran's economy and would be seen by them as an act of war. They would respond to the embargo by making sure the rest of the world had a damned harder time getting oil as well.
It's not unreasonable to see this as a World War 3 type situation. Let's hope America has the sense to back off Iran. Or to get hastily and firmly onto alternative energies.
Iranian Navy Menaces Oil Exports from Hormuz | Informed Comment
United Nations and United States financial and economic sanctions on Iran have probably gone about as far as they can in damaging Iran’s economy. They have had a significant effect, but are hardly in danger of shaking the regime or convincing it to cease its civilian nuclear enrichment program.
Iran is preemptively responding to threats of escalating sanctions by conducting a big naval exercise, Vilayat-90, in the Straits of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Iran is making the point that if it wants to, it can close the straits, through which about 17% of the world’s petroleum exports flow. Any interruption in that flow would cause a global energy crisis. An Iranian admiral has said that closing the straits would be as easy as “drinking a glass of water.”
These exercises are not a threat to close the Straits, which Iran needs as well, any time soon. They are a demonstration that if the US tries to impose a global oil embargo on Iran, it has the means to reply to that act of war. It is a response to the threats of the US Senate.
The US- and Israel- led economic war on Iran is not a notable success so far. Iran’s central bank says, at least, that the Iranian economy grew some 5.5% in 2010-2011, which is pretty good given the state of the world economy and rather better than the US.
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